How do we know which horses are the fastest in a race, the answer is we assign a speed figure to each horse. As we go through the form book rating horses in different races, we will also uncover such things as to why a horse ran badly in certain races and why a horse performed well in other races. This is very important because we want our selection to run as close as possible to his best figures. In horse racing, a lot of horses prefer certain conditions to run at their best, and when those conditions are met they are virtually unstoppable, you can read more on this in the chapter on patterns.
There are two ways of working out speed figures for horses, firstly you could use speed charts which are made out for each course and secondly you can calculate each race using a formula. To start with we will look at speed charts and how to use them. Take a look at a speed chart in the
speed chart section. The process is very simple, each distance has a time. The figure of 100 is the median time for the course and distance. Go to the results section in the Racing Post and bring up the race you want to rate. At the bottom of the result you will see a winning time. This is the time we use.
This time may have to be adjusted for going conditions so check any allowance that may be given, this will look something along the lines of ‘allow -0.20 p/f ’, so if the race was run over a mile this would be 0.20 x 8 = 1.60 sec. This would be subtracted from the winning time. In flat racing a horse runs roughly one-fifth of a second per length, so if a horse was beaten 5 lengths, this would be roughly one second behind the winner. You will have to make up a chart for each course as each course has its own median time for the distance. You can find median times in the Racing Post online on the day of a meeting.
You assign 100 to the median time for the distance and then build up the chart based on the one in the speed chart section. To make it easy there is a beaten lengths chart to use in the speed chart section. This is a very easy way of producing speed figures.The other method is one that uses a formula to produce a rating. This method is also very simple to use once you have done it a few times. Do the same as above to get a winning time. Depending if the time was faster of slower than standard, add or subtract the winning time from the standard time. Because we are not using a chart we have to calculate different figures for different distances. A flat horse runs roughly a length every 0.022 sec per furlong and in National Hunt racing about a length every 0.025sec per furlong, For example 5f = 0.11, 6f = 0.13, 7f=0.15, 1m = 0.17 etc What we do now is divide the difference of the two times by the furlong time for the distance.
Example: A 6f race was won in a time of 1m 17secs, and was slow by 2.04 seconds. You can move the decimal over, so 204 / 13 = 15.6. Take 100 and subtract 15.6 = 84.4, rounded off to 84. this is your speed figure.
Notice I didn't adjust the ratings for any weight allowance. I am a firm believer that weight makes very little difference to a horse’s performance. As a horse wins races the weight he is due to carry will rise. An extra 6lb is added to his weight for every win. Basically every horse has a limit of how much weight he can carry. This will depend on the strength and size of the horse. The only way to know if a horse has reached his weight limit is when he can’t win any more under the current weight. In most cases you can back a horse with confidence without worrying about the weight he is carrying. The general consensus among the racing industry is that a horse running over 6f carrying an extra 3lb will be slowed down by 1 length. With the use of speed figures you will see that this concept is not the case as horses in form regularly clock faster times next time out even after been penalized for a win.
