What is Trend Analysis?

Each year a trainer will aim his/her best horses at specific races. These races will be very competitive and have winning prize money of over 20K. It is here when our form study begins. The past 10 years results of a certain race can have a bearing on the same race in the future. The way horses are trained, patterns and performances are all combined to find a winning solution on these future races. I will go into depth on form and criteria of race horse’s needs to win top races like the Grand National, the Epsom derby and the 2000 guinea’s.

Age

The age of a horse may not be the first thing you look for but when finding the likely winner of the Grand National it can have a strong bearing.
Let’s look at 6yo and 7yo in the past 10 years and how they have performed. There have been 23 horses in this age bracket over the years and I can tell you now that not only did they struggle to make an impact only two of them completed the course and of those two, one horse finished last and the other 13th. How many horses ran this year in this age bracket? The answer is none. Trainers are now coming to terms that the horses in this age group are not strong enough physically to win a marathon race of this kind but I bet that won’t stop some of them entering these kind of horses again next year.

Weight

Let’s stay with the Grand National for this one as well. Here’s a strong stat for you, when was the last time in the last ten years a horse won the race carrying 11stone 2 pounds? And again the answer is none, why? This is because the distance and the weight in the saddle are all too much for the horse and they are far more likely to be beaten by horse carrying less weight. Amazing 53 horses have tried since 1997 and so far none have won although some were placed. It may happen one day but I for one would not have backed it that’s for sure.

Form

This is an obvious one but how obvious. How a horse has fared in there last three races or even there last race is a strong indicator of how they might do in there next. Only one Epsom derby horse has won the race when not winning his last and that was Sir Percy last season, so by ignoring that stat in the previous nine would had made it easier to narrow the field down. The previous form of the 2000 guinea’s winner is likely to have won at least 50% of his previous races. Something to bear in mind when these races are ran again

Class

Proven at a class level is more often essential then not in most big races. Did you know that nine of the last ten winners of the Epsom derby won a group race of some kind prior to there derby win. Only Oath in 1999 failed this stat, so it’s always worth considering this trend.

Distance

We finish off with a subject that is always debatable and I feel that most horses are distance sensitive. Horses normally will run well at a particular distance and do show a preference most of the time. Races like the Grand National are one of a kind and it’s far less likely that horses are going to contest a race like this very often. The last ten winners however all won at or over 3m and most were placed further and these horses as combined with age on the there side and a light weight can prove a strong factor, when most watched horse race in the world comes round again.

Final Thought

There are various ways to find winners and using trends is one of them. Have you ever considered that when looking a 2yo race with limited form, how there sire’s performed at that age or have you ever started to look at a big handicap thinking how am I going to find the winner of this race? A strong indicator is how has previous winners fared in big fields of a similar nature? I can tell you now you will be very surprised by the results you find and that big field becomes a realistic small one.
Every now and then a horse will defy a trend and that’s always going to happen but if you work hard, be committed and patient I am certain you will be rewarded for your efforts.